Unemployment rate returned to its prepandemic level in 2022

Investigating the Relationship between Unemployment Rate and Economic Growth Rate in Iran and Selected Countries

Abstract. According to a rule known as the Okan Law, for one percent decrease (increase) in the unemployment rate, the economic growth rate will increase (decrease) by approximately 0.3 percent. In other words, there is a negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the economic growth rate. This study examines the establishment of this relationship. Contrary to expectations, the rel...

Unemployment Rate and Divorce

This study investigates whether shifts in the unemployment rate affect the divorce probability of married and cohabiting couples. Compared to the match quality shocks utilized in the existing literature, unemployment rate movements are plausibly exogenous and affect individuals through both actual as well as potential loss of a job. I find that a rise in the unemployment rate in the wife’s sect...

What Will 2022 Look Like? The IEEE CS 2022 Report

Forecasting the US unemployment rate

The primary interest of this paper is in out-of-sample forecasting for the U.S. monthly unemployment rate. Several linear unobserved components models are fitted and their comparative forecasting accuracy is assessed by means of and extensive rolling-origin procedure using a test period that covers the last two decades. An attempt is made to link forecasting performance to the time domain prope...

Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts

In this paper we use smooth transition vector error-correction models (STVECMs) in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the unemployment rates of the four non-Euro G-7 countries, the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Japan. In the forecasting analysis, pooled forecasts constructed by taking the median value across the point forecasts generated by the linear VECM and the STVECMs generally ...